Optimization Output for Exp. 282 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	282
Pathogen	Pseudomonas aeruginosa
Agent Strain	ATCC 19660
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Hazlett, L. D., Rosen, D. D., & Berk, R. S. (1978). Age-Related Susceptibility to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Ocular Infections in Mice. Infection and Immunity, 20, 1.
Exposure Route	injected in eyelids
Response	death(after day 21)

Detailed information

Host type	Swiss webster mice (5day old)
# of Doses	6.00
Dose Units	CFU
Μodel	exponential
k	1.39E-04
LD50/ID50	4.98E+03

Description

mice (5day old) / *Pseudomonas aeruginosa*
Dose	Dead	Survived	Total
2.5	0	13	13
25	0	14	14
250	0	12	12
2500	4	13	17
25000	15	0	15
250000	17	0	17

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	2.17	-0.000196	5	3.84 1	11.1 0.825
Beta Poisson	2.17	-0.000196	4	3.84 1	9.49 0.704
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	1.39E-04	8.87E-05	9.90E-05	9.90E-05	2.05E-04	2.36E-04	2.73E-04
ID50/LD50/ETC*	4.98E+03	2.54E+03	2.94E+03	3.38E+03	7.00E+03	7.00E+03	7.82E+03
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Hazlett, L. D., Rosen, D. D., & Berk, R. S. (1978). Age-Related Susceptibility to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Ocular Infections in Mice. Infection and Immunity, 20, 1.