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Experiment ID
165
Pathogen
Escherichia coli
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Diarrhea caused by Escherichia coli that produce only heat-stable enterotoxin
Host type
human
# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
2.5E-01
N50
9.1E+07
LD50/ID50
9.1E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
diarrhea or vomiting
Agent Strain
ETEC 214-4 (ST)
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
Escherichia coli (ETEC 214-4 (ST)) in the human model data [1]
Dose Diarrhea or vomiting No diarrhea or vomiting Total
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+08 3 2 5
1E+10 4 1 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 15.9 15.3 2 3.84 
9e-05		 5.99 
0.000359
Beta Poisson 0.531 1 3.84 
0.466
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.5E-01 9.94E-04 9.94E-04 9.94E-04 1.76E+02 7.32E+02 7.32E+02
N50 9.1E+07 3.05E+04 4.09E+04 5.00E+04 3.20E+08 6.91E+08 6.91E+08

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  1. Levine, M. M., Caplan E. S., Waterman D., Cash R. A., Hornick R. B., & Snyder M. J. (1977).  Diarrhea caused by Escherichia coli that produce only heat-stable enterotoxin. Infection and Immunity. 17, 1.