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Experiment ID
240
Pathogen
Salmonella meleagridis
Agent Strain
strain III
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Muller, D. ., Edwards, M. L., & Smith, D. W. (1983). Changes in Iron and Transferrin Levels and Body Temperature in Experimental Airborne Legionellosis. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 147, 2. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/147.2.302
Exposure Route
oral (with eggnog)
Response
infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
4.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
8.85E-01
N50
5.24E+05
LD50/ID50
5.24E+05
Description
Human/ S. meleagridis strain III data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
158000 1 5 6
1.5E+06 5 1 6
7680000 6 0 6
1E+07 5 1 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 7.81 5.51 3 3.84 
0.019 		7.81 
0.0501
Beta Poisson 2.3 2 5.99 
0.316
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 8.85E-01 1.78E-01 2.91E-01 3.68E-01 1.40E+03 1.71E+03 8.24E+03
N50 5.24E+05 4.71E+04 1.20E+05 1.92E+05 1.19E+06 1.39E+06 1.90E+06

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • McCullough, N. ., & Elsele, C. . (1951). Experimental human salmonellosis: I. Pathogenicity of strains of Salmonella meleagridis and Salmonella anatum obtained from spray-dried whole egg. Oxford Journal of Infectious Diseases, 88(3). https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/88.3.278