Description
Guinea pig/Vollum Strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
19800 8 24 32
40800 18 14 32
76200 21 11 32
118000 28 4 32

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.43 -0.000184 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.699
Beta Poisson 1.43 2 5.99 
0.49
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.65E-05 1.20E-05 1.30E-05 1.35E-05 2.03E-05 2.12E-05 2.28E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC* 4.2E+04 3.04E+04 3.27E+04 3.41E+04 5.14E+04 5.35E+04 5.80E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

Bacillus Graph 2.png

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
4.2E+04
Dose Units
spores
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.65E-05
Agent Strain
Vollum
Experiment ID
87
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Rhesus Macaques/Vollum Strain model data
Dose Dead Survived Total
70300 1 7 8
77000 4 4 8
109000 5 3 8
138000 6 2 8
156000 5 3 8
161000 3 5 8
240000 8 0 8
3E+05 7 1 8
398000 8 0 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 11.3 -0.000503 8 3.84 
1 		15.5 
0.188
Beta Poisson 11.3 7 14.1 
0.128
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 7.16E-06 4.99E-06 5.47E-06 5.71E-06 9.09E-06 9.51E-06 1.05E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC* 9.69E+04 6.63E+04 7.29E+04 7.63E+04 1.21E+05 1.27E+05 1.39E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

 

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

 

# of Doses
9.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
9.69E+04
Dose Units
spores
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
7.16E-06
Agent Strain
Vollum
Experiment ID
86
Host type
monkey
Description
Guinea pig/ATCC 6605 Strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
30 0 6 6
300 1 5 6
3000 0 10 10
3E+04 3 7 10
3E+05 8 2 10
3E+06 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 8.56 1.81 5 3.84 
0.178 		11.1 
0.128
Beta Poisson 6.75 4 9.49 
0.15
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 7.11E-06 2.60E-06 3.52E-06 3.87E-06 1.61E-05 1.97E-05 2.85E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC* 9.75E+04 2.43E+04 3.52E+04 4.30E+04 1.79E+05 1.97E+05 2.66E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

 

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
9.75E+04
Dose Units
spores
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
7.11E-06
Agent Strain
ATCC 6605
Experiment ID
85
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Guinea pig/Vollum Strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
200 0 4 4
2000 0 8 8
2E+04 6 6 12
2E+05 10 2 12
2E+06 7 1 8
2E+07 7 0 7

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 29.2 26.6 5 3.84 
2.46e-07 		11.1 
2.11e-05
Beta Poisson 2.58 4 9.49 
0.631
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 5.49E-01 2.55E-01 3.03E-01 3.32E-01 5.51E+00 2.45E+03 6.16E+03
N50 2.85E+04 1.00E+04 1.25E+04 1.43E+04 6.57E+04 7.85E+04 1.09E+05

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
2.85E+04
LD50/ID50
2.85E+04
Dose Units
spores
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
a
5.49E-01
Agent Strain
Vollum
Experiment ID
84
Host type
guinea pig
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