# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
4.67E+07
LD50/ID50
4.67E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
fetal mortality
Exposure Route
intubation
Contains Preferred Model
Status
fitted
a
0.0936
Experiment ID
290
Host type
guinea pig
Experiment Dataset
Description
Guinea pig/Vollum Strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
19800 8 24 32
40800 18 14 32
76200 21 11 32
118000 28 4 32

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.43 -0.000184 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.699
Beta Poisson 1.43 2 5.99 
0.49
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.65E-05 1.20E-05 1.30E-05 1.35E-05 2.03E-05 2.12E-05 2.28E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC* 4.2E+04 3.04E+04 3.27E+04 3.41E+04 5.14E+04 5.35E+04 5.80E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

Bacillus Graph 2.png

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
4.2E+04
Dose Units
spores
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.65E-05
Agent Strain
Vollum
Experiment ID
87
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Guinea pig/ATCC 6605 Strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
30 0 6 6
300 1 5 6
3000 0 10 10
3E+04 3 7 10
3E+05 8 2 10
3E+06 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 8.56 1.81 5 3.84 
0.178 		11.1 
0.128
Beta Poisson 6.75 4 9.49 
0.15
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 7.11E-06 2.60E-06 3.52E-06 3.87E-06 1.61E-05 1.97E-05 2.85E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC* 9.75E+04 2.43E+04 3.52E+04 4.30E+04 1.79E+05 1.97E+05 2.66E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

 

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
9.75E+04
Dose Units
spores
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
7.11E-06
Agent Strain
ATCC 6605
Experiment ID
85
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Guinea pig/Vollum Strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
200 0 4 4
2000 0 8 8
2E+04 6 6 12
2E+05 10 2 12
2E+06 7 1 8
2E+07 7 0 7

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 29.2 26.6 5 3.84 
2.46e-07 		11.1 
2.11e-05
Beta Poisson 2.58 4 9.49 
0.631
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 5.49E-01 2.55E-01 3.03E-01 3.32E-01 5.51E+00 2.45E+03 6.16E+03
N50 2.85E+04 1.00E+04 1.25E+04 1.43E+04 6.57E+04 7.85E+04 1.09E+05

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
2.85E+04
LD50/ID50
2.85E+04
Dose Units
spores
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
a
5.49E-01
Agent Strain
Vollum
Experiment ID
84
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Guinea pigs/ Philadelphia 1 Strain model data
Dose Dead Survived Total
1E+04 1 4 5
15000 0 3 3
2E+04 5 2 7
5E+04 3 0 3
1E+05 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 5.85 -0.000131 4 3.84 
1 		9.49 
0.211
Beta Poisson 5.85 3 7.81 
0.119
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 4.17E-05 2.29E-05 2.68E-05 3.00E-05 5.87E-05 6.78E-05 7.86E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.66E+04 8.82E+03 1.02E+04 1.18E+04 2.31E+04 2.59E+04 3.03E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.66E+04
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
4.17E-05
Agent Strain
Philadelphia 1
Experiment ID
243
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Guinea pigs/ Philadelphia 1 strain data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
1 0 4 4
5 4 10 14
50 17 1 18
100 8 0 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.582 0.000479 3 3.84 
0.983 		7.81 
0.9
Beta Poisson 0.582 2 5.99 
0.748
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 5.99E-02 3.26E-02 3.90E-02 4.18E-02 1.11E-01 1.31E-01 1.57E-01
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.16E+01 4.42E+00 5.28E+00 6.25E+00 1.66E+01 1.78E+01 2.13E+01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.16E+01
Dose Units
CFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
5.99E-02
Agent Strain
Philadelphia 1
Experiment ID
241
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Guinea Pigs W294 Strain Data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
44 1 4 5
440 3 2 5
4400 4 1 5
44000 5 0 5
440000 5 0 5
4.4E+06 4 1 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 70.3 66.1 5 3.84 
4.44e-16 		11.1 
8.93e-14
Beta Poisson 4.14 4 9.49 
0.387
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.67E-01 3.36E-02 8.80E-02 1.16E-01 1.05E+01 3.45E+02 3.55E+03
N50 2.55E+02 4.80E-07 2.49E+00 1.48E+01 1.35E+03 1.80E+03 3.22E+03
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
2.55E+02
LD50/ID50
2.55E+02
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intraperitoneal
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.67E-01
Agent Strain
W294
Experiment ID
21
Host type
guinea pig
Experiment Dataset
Description
Guinea pig/ Josiah strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 1 7 8
48 1 7 8
724 3 5 8
5370 4 4 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 14.4 13.8 3 3.84 
0.000203 		7.81 
0.00237
Beta Poisson 0.633 2 5.99 
0.729
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 7.94E-02 9.77E-04 9.85E-04 9.87E-04 4.57E-01 1.19E+00 5.76E+02
N50 1.43E+04 2.13E-01 9.22E-01 2.90E+00 1.82E+13 3.06E+17 2.25E+34

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.43E+04
LD50/ID50
1.43E+04
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
a
7.94E-02
Agent Strain
Josiah strain
Experiment ID
15
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Guinea pig/ Josiah strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
0.02 1 9 10
0.2 4 6 10
2 10 0 10
24 10 0 10
2400 15 0 15
240000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.42 -0.000621 5 3.84 
1 		11.1 
0.995
Beta Poisson 0.42 4 9.49 
0.981
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.95E+00 1.35E+00 1.61E+00 1.65E+00 5.43E+00 5.90E+00 7.52E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.35E-01 9.21E-02 1.17E-01 1.28E-01 4.21E-01 4.32E-01 5.14E-01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.35E-01
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
subcutaneous
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.95E+00
Agent Strain
Josiah strain
Experiment ID
13
Host type
guinea pig
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