oral (no NaHCO3) | QMRA wiki

Description

Please Note

The results from this experiment are not recommended for use, rather they are present for reference purposes. The confidence intervals are not complete for this experiment since the data is not allowing for a stable bootstrap outcome. It is recommended to use the recommended model as this data is likely just capable of passing the test of trend, but still likely suboptimal for dose response modeling purposes.

**Human Inaba Strain 569B**
Dose	Diarrhea or culture positive	No diarrhea or culture positive	Total
1E+04	0	2	2
1E+06	0	4	4
1E+07	0	4	4
1E+08	2	2	4
1E+09	1	1	2
1E+10	0	1	1
1E+11	2	0	2

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	15.1	10.4	6	3.84 0.00126	12.6 0.0193
Beta Poisson	4.72	10.4	5	3.84 0.00126	11.1 0.451
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	1.98E-01	9.92E-04	9.92E-04	1.04E-03	3.20E-01	3.65E-01	4.07E-01
N₅₀	6.36E+08	8.26E+05	8.26E+05	1.18E+08	5.33E+207	5.33E+207	8.87E+254

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses

7.00

Μodel

beta-Poisson

N50

6.36E+08

LD50/ID50

6.36E+08

Dose Units

CFU

Response

diarrhea or culture positive

Exposure Route

oral (no NaHCO3)

Contains Preferred Model

Read more about Optimization Output for Exp. 35

1.98E-01

Agent Strain

Inaba 569B

Experiment ID

Host type

human

Description

**Human Inaba 569B**
Dose	Diarrhea and culture positive	No diarrhea and culture positive	Total
1E+04	0	2	2
1E+06	0	4	4
1E+07	0	4	4
1E+08	2	2	4
1E+09	0	2	2
1E+10	0	1	1
1E+11	2	0	2

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	14.9	7.58	6	3.84 0.00589	12.6 0.0207
Beta Poisson	7.36	7.58	5	3.84 0.00589	11.1 0.195
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	1.31E-01	1.04E-03	1.04E-03	1.04E-03	1.67E-01	1.67E-01	1.67E-01
N₅₀	2.91E+09	3.23E+08	3.23E+08	3.23E+08	8.87E+254	8.87E+254	8.87E+254