Description
Strain 81-176 model data 
Dose Campylobacteriosis Non-campylobacteriosis Total
1E+05 3 2 5
1E+07 2 3 5
1E+09 33 3 36

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 50.1 46.6 2 3.84
8.56e-12 		5.99
1.29e-11
Beta Poisson 3.51 1 3.84
0.061
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.66E-01 2.92E-02 4.29E-02 6.44E-02 3.32E-01 4.07E-01 1.16E+00
N50 1.23E+05 6.24E-10 4.60E-05 9.04E-01 2.00E+06 6.12E+06 3.96E+07

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.23E+05
LD50/ID50
1.23E+05
Dose Units
CFU
Response
campylobacteriosis
Exposure Route
oral (w. 2g NaHCO3)
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.66E-01
Agent Strain
strain 81-176
Experiment ID
188
Host type
human
Description
Strain A3249 Data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
810 5 5 10
8100 6 4 10
91000 11 2 13
810000 8 3 11
1.1E+06 15 4 19
1.1E+08 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 110 108 5 3.84 
0		 11.1 
0
Beta Poisson 2.43 4 9.49 
0.658
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.44E-01 2.05E-02 3.61E-02 4.99E-02 2.66E-01 2.98E-01 3.71E-01
N50 8.9E+02 6.54E-10 1.47E-04 8.11E-02 6.69E+03 8.97E+03 1.53E+04

 

 

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
8.9E+02
LD50/ID50
8.9E+02
Dose Units
CFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.44E-01
Agent Strain
strain A3249
Experiment ID
106
Host type
human
Description
Model data for rotavirus (CJN strain) in the human 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
9E-03 0 7 7
0.09 0 7 7
0.9 1 6 7
9 8 3 11
90 6 1 7
900 7 1 8
9000 5 2 7
9E+04 3 0 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 125 119 7 3.84 
0 		14.1 
0
Beta Poisson 6.2 6 12.6 
0.401
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.53E-01 1.28E-01 1.51E-01 1.64E-01 5.18E-01 6.58E-01 6.76E+02
N50 6.17E+00 1.46E+00 2.17E+00 2.49E+00 1.89E+01 2.49E+01 4.37E+01

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
LD50/ID50
6.17E+00
Dose Units
FFU
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.53E-02
k
6.17E+00
Experiment ID
70
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Model data for rotavirus (CJN strain) in the human 
Dose Detectable shedding No detectable shedding Total
9E-03 0 7 7
0.09 0 7 7
0.9 1 6 7
9 8 3 11
90 4 3 7
900 3 5 8
9000 4 3 7
9E+04 2 1 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 157 148 7 3.84 
0 		14.1 
0
Beta Poisson 9.42 6 12.6 
0.151
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 9.6E-02 9.94E-04 9.96E-04 9.98E-04 1.59E-01 1.74E-01 2.05E-01
N50 9.61E+01 2.95E-03 1.59E-02 4.56E-02 2.83E+03 1.46E+04 1.58E+80

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
96.1
LD50/ID50
96.1
Dose Units
FFU
Response
detectable shedding
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
a
9.6E-2
Agent Strain
CJN strain (unpassaged
Experiment ID
125
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Model data for rotavirus (CJN strain) in the human 
Dose Symptoms and infection No symptoms and infection Total
9E-03 0 7 7
0.09 0 7 7
0.9 1 6 7
9 5 6 11
90 2 5 7
900 4 4 8
9000 3 4 7
9E+04 2 1 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 103 99.5 7 3.84 
0 		14.1 
0
Beta Poisson 3.14 6 12.6 
0.791
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 7.28E-02 9.93E-04 9.95E-04 9.96E-04 1.32E-01 1.46E-01 1.83E-01
N50 1.47E+03 6.55E-03 1.85E-02 4.58E-02 5.47E+06 1.82E+31 6.68E+122

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.47E+03
LD50/ID50
1.47E+03
Dose Units
FFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
a
7.28E-02
Agent Strain
CJN strain (unpassaged)
Experiment ID
71
Host type
human
Description
Escherichia coli (EIEC 1624) in the human model data
Dose Positive stool isolation No positive stool isolation Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 5 4 9
1E+08 3 2 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 28.6 27.2 2 3.84 
1.82e-07 		5.99 
6.18e-07
Beta Poisson 1.38 1 3.84 
0.24
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.55E-01 1.26E-03 1.26E-03 2.84E-02 1.84E+01 1.29E+02 1.90E+02
N50 2.11E+06 1.73E+05 2.95E+05 2.95E+05 7.85E+08 9.22E+140 9.22E+140
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized mode
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized mode
# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
2.11E+06
LD50/ID50
2.11E+06
Dose Units
CFU
Response
positive stool isolation
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.55E-01
Agent Strain
EIEC 1624
Experiment ID
98
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Dose response data
Dose Positive stool isolation No positive stool isolation Total
1E+06 3 1 4
1E+08 4 1 5
1E+08 5 0 5
1E+08 5 0 5
1E+10 5 0 5
1E+10 5 0 5
1E+10 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 64.1 61.4 6 3.84 
4.77e-15 		12.6 
6.67e-12
Beta Poisson 2.71 5 11.1 
0.745
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.75E-01 1.29E-01 1.34E-01 1.34E-01 9.97E+00 9.97E+00 1.07E+01
N50 1.78E+05 3.63E-01 3.63E-01 3.63E-01 2.46E+06 3.48E+06 6.09E+06
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
7.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.78E+05
LD50/ID50
1.78E+05
Dose Units
CFU
Response
positive stool isolation
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
a
3.75E-01
Agent Strain
ETEC B7A
Experiment ID
96, 100, 166
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Model data for Shigella flexneri (2a, strain 2457T) in the human 
Dose Positive stool isolation No positive stool isolation Total
180 6 30 36
5000 33 16 49
1E+04 66 21 87
1E+05 15 9 24

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 169 160 3 3.84 
0 		7.81 
0
Beta Poisson 8.73 2 5.99 
0.0127
Neither the exponential nor beta-Poisson fits well; beta-Poisson is less bad.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.65E-01 1.47E-01 1.74E-01 1.87E-01 3.82E-01 4.09E-01 4.70E-01
N50 1.48E+03 5.60E+02 7.33E+02 8.26E+02 2.55E+03 2.78E+03 3.38E+03
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.48E+03
LD50/ID50
1.48E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
positive stool isolation
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.65E-01
Agent Strain
2a (strain 2457T)
Experiment ID
83
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Model data for Shigella flexneri (2a, strain 2457T) in the human 
Dose Illness Not illness Total
180 9 27 36
5000 28 21 49
1E+04 1 3 4
1E+04 52 36 88
1E+05 3 1 4
1E+05 14 10 24
1E+06 7 1 8
1E+07 13 6 19
1E+08 7 1 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 677 671 8 3.84 
0 		15.5 
0
Beta Poisson 6.04 7 14.1 
0.535
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.17E-01 4.86E-02 6.43E-02 7.25E-02 1.68E-01 1.78E-01 2.02E-01
N50 3.64E+03 3.32E+02 8.92E+02 1.22E+03 9.16E+03 1.12E+04 1.73E+04

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
9.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
3.64E+03
LD50/ID50
3.64E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
illness
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.17E-01
Agent Strain
2a (strain 2457T)
Experiment ID
82, 223
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Model data for Shigella flexneri (2a, strain 2457T) in the human 
Dose Illness Not illness Total
1E+04 1 3 4
1E+05 3 1 4
1E+06 7 1 8
1E+07 13 6 19
1E+08 7 1 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 73.6 70.2 4 3.84 
0 		9.49 
3.89e-15
Beta Poisson 3.44 3 7.81 
0.329
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.43E-01 1.32E-02 2.12E-02 2.63E-02 2.90E-01 3.32E-01 4.27E-01
N50 3.54E+04 1.29E-11 8.16E-07 3.11E-04 3.34E+05 4.65E+05 9.68E+05
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
3.54E+04
LD50/ID50
3.54E+04
Dose Units
CFU
Response
illness
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.43E-01
Agent Strain
2a (strain 2457T)
Experiment ID
82
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Subscribe to human