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Experiment ID
1
Pathogen
Yersinia pestis
Agent Strain
CO92
Contains Preferred Model
Yes
Reference
Lathem, W. W., Crosby, S. D., Miller, L. . , V, & Goldman, W. E. (2005). Progression of primary pneumonic plague: A mouse model of infection, pathology, and bacterial transcriptional activity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 17786-17791. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0506840102
Exposure Route
intranasal
Response
death
Host type
mice
# of Doses
4.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
exponential
k
1.63E-03
LD50/ID50
4.26E+02
Experiment Dataset
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 1 3 4
1000 3 1 4
1E+04 4 0 4
1E+05 4 0 4
Description
Mouse/ CO92 model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 1 3 4
1000 3 1 4
1E+04 4 0 4
1E+05 4 0 4

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.338 0.195 3 3.84 
0.658 		7.81 
0.953
Beta Poisson 0.142 2 5.99 
0.931
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.63E-03 3.62E-04 5.50E-04 6.22E-04 7.02E-03 7.02E-03 7.02E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 4.26E+02 9.87E+01 9.87E+01 9.87E+01 1.11E+03 1.26E+03 1.92E+03
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Lathem, W. W., Crosby, S. D., Miller, L. . , V, & Goldman, W. E. (2005). Progression of primary pneumonic plague: A mouse model of infection, pathology, and bacterial transcriptional activity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 17786-17791. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0506840102