Description
Strain 81-176 model data 
Dose Campylobacteriosis Non-campylobacteriosis Total
1E+05 3 2 5
1E+07 2 3 5
1E+09 33 3 36

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 50.1 46.6 2 3.84
8.56e-12
5.99
1.29e-11
Beta Poisson 3.51 1 3.84
0.061
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.66E-01 2.92E-02 4.29E-02 6.44E-02 3.32E-01 4.07E-01 1.16E+00
N50 1.23E+05 6.24E-10 4.60E-05 9.04E-01 2.00E+06 6.12E+06 3.96E+07

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
N50
1.23E+05
LD50/ID50
1.23E+05
Dose Units
Exposure Route
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.66E-01
Agent Strain
strain 81-176
Experiment ID
188
Host type
Description
EPEC, infection, buffered, in the human model data
Dose Shedding in feces No shedding in feces Total
1E+06 3 1 4
1E+06 5 0 5
1E+06 4 1 5
1E+08 5 0 5
1E+08 5 0 5
9E+08 8 0 8
1E+10 10 0 10
1E+10 9 0 9
1E+10 14 0 14
1E+10 5 0 5
1E+10 5 0 5
1E+10 5 0 5
2.3E+10 19 0 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.98 2.71e-06 12 3.84 
0.999
21 
0.999
Beta Poisson 1.98 11 19.7 
0.999
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.95E-06 8.47E-07 1.03E-06 1.25E-06 2.64E-06 2.64E-06 2.64E-06
ID50/LD50/ETC* 3.56E+05 2.63E+05 2.63E+05 2.63E+05 5.53E+05 6.73E+05 8.18E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

 

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
13.00
Μodel
LD50/ID50
3.56E+05
Dose Units
Exposure Route
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.95E-06
Agent Strain
EPEC E2348/69 (O127:H6)
Experiment ID
154, 156, 158, 160, 219, 220, 221
Host type
Experiment Dataset
Description
ETEC infection, unbuffered, in the human model data
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+06 1 4 5
1E+08 1 4 5
5E+08 3 2 5
2.5E+09 6 0 6
1E+10 9 1 10
1E+10 9 5 14
1E+10 3 2 5
1E+10 5 0 5
2E+10 2 0 2
2.3E+10 14 5 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 57.8 43.4 10 3.84 
4.51e-11
18.3 
9.36e-09
Beta Poisson 14.4 9 16.9 
0.108
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.62E-01 8.23E-02 9.98E-02 1.08E-01 3.69E-01 4.21E-01 5.36E-01
N50 9.98E+07 7.29E+06 1.55E+07 2.20E+07 8.50E+08 1.06E+09 1.57E+09
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

 

# of Doses
11.00
Μodel
N50
9.98E+07
LD50/ID50
9.98E+07
Dose Units
Response
Exposure Route
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.62E-01
Agent Strain
EPEC E2348/69 (O127:H6)
Experiment ID
153, 157, 159, 214, 216, 217
Host type
Experiment Dataset