Description
EPEC disease in the human model data
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+06 1 4 5
1E+08 1 4 5
5E+08 3 2 5
2.5E+09 6 0 6
1E+10 3 2 5
1E+10 5 0 5
2E+10 2 0 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 31.8 20.6 7 3.84 
5.69e-06 		14.1 
4.37e-05
Beta Poisson 11.2 6 12.6 
0.0813
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.21E-01 9.31E-02 1.18E-01 1.27E-01 1.25E+00 7.41E+02 1.29E+04
N50 6.85E+07 6.14E+06 1.11E+07 1.52E+07 6.32E+08 7.69E+08 1.09E+09
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
6.85E+07
LD50/ID50
6.85E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (with NaHCO3)
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.21E-01
Agent Strain
EPEC B171-8 (serotype O11:NM)
Experiment ID
214, 216, 217
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
TU502 data 
Dose Diarrhea Not diarrhea Total
10 2 3 5
30 3 2 5
100 5 2 7
500 3 1 4

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 11.6 11.5 3 3.84 
0.000708 		7.81 
0.00894
Beta Poisson 0.119 2 5.99 
0.942
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.7E-01 9.83E-04 9.85E-04 2.03E-03 6.60E+00 6.70E+02 3.19E+03
N50 1.68E+01 3.41E-16 9.86E-09 1.68E-06 7.15E+01 9.76E+01 6.59E+02

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model.

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.68E+01
LD50/ID50
1.68E+01
Dose Units
oocysts
Response
diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.7E-01
Agent Strain
*C. hominis*, TU502
Experiment ID
181
Host type
human
Description
ETEC infection, unbuffered, in the human model data
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+06 1 4 5
1E+08 1 4 5
5E+08 3 2 5
2.5E+09 6 0 6
1E+10 9 1 10
1E+10 9 5 14
1E+10 3 2 5
1E+10 5 0 5
2E+10 2 0 2
2.3E+10 14 5 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 57.8 43.4 10 3.84 
4.51e-11 		18.3 
9.36e-09
Beta Poisson 14.4 9 16.9 
0.108
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.62E-01 8.23E-02 9.98E-02 1.08E-01 3.69E-01 4.21E-01 5.36E-01
N50 9.98E+07 7.29E+06 1.55E+07 2.20E+07 8.50E+08 1.06E+09 1.57E+09
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

 

# of Doses
11.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
9.98E+07
LD50/ID50
9.98E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (w. 2g NaHCO3)
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.62E-01
Agent Strain
EPEC E2348/69 (O127:H6)
Experiment ID
153, 157, 159, 214, 216, 217
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
EPEC disease in the human model data
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
1E+06 3 3 6
1E+07 6 9 15
1E+08 6 1 7
1E+08 7 4 11
1E+08 7 5 12
1E+08 9 3 12
1E+08 6 3 9
1E+08 4 2 6
1E+08 3 1 4
1E+08 4 0 4
2.7E+08 9 7 16
5E+08 19 8 27
1E+09 5 3 8
1E+09 7 1 8
1E+09 5 5 10
1E+10 8 0 8
1E+10 5 4 9
1E+10 9 3 12
1E+10 9 5 14

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 412 393 18 3.84 
0 		28.9 
0
Beta Poisson 19.1 17 27.6 
0.322
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 7.54E-02 8.28E-03 1.11E-02 1.51E-02 1.46E-01 1.59E-01 1.84E-01
N50 1.7E+06 2.80E-11 1.91E-06 1.44E-03 2.34E+07 3.09E+07 4.67E+07
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
19.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.7E+06
LD50/ID50
1.7E+06
Dose Units
CFU
Response
diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (with NaHCO3)
Contains Preferred Model
a
7.54E-02
Agent Strain
ETEC B7A
Experiment ID
142, 143, 144, 145, 147, 151, 161, 162, 163, 164, 168, 169, 170, 172
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
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