Description
Pooled dose response data [1]
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
63095.73 0 15 15
1E+05 2 10 12
630957.3 4 7 11
1E+06 8 5 13
6309573 19 3 22
1E+07 16 3 19
31622777 16 4 20
63095734 24 1 25
1E+08 19 0 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 64 55.4 8 3.84 
9.68e-14 		15.5 
7.63e-11
Beta Poisson 8.56 7 14.1 
0.285
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 5.81E-01 3.61E-01 3.98E-01 4.24E-01 9.15E-01 1.02E+00 1.36E+00
N50 9.45E+05 4.38E+05 5.28E+05 5.72E+05 1.62E+06 1.79E+06 2.23E+06

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
9.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
9.45E+05
LD50/ID50
9.45E+05
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
a
5.81E-01
Agent Strain
H1N1,A/California/10/78 attenuated strain,H3N2,A/Washington/897/80 attenuated strain
Experiment ID
257, 258
Host type
human
Description
human/H1N1 A/California/10/78 attenuated strain model data [2]
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
63095.73 0 15 15
630957.3 4 7 11
6309573 19 3 22
63095734 24 1 25

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 23.6 21.5 3 3.84 
3.47e-06 		7.81 
3.09e-05
Beta Poisson 2.02 2 5.99 
0.365
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 9.04E-01 4.20E-01 4.91E-01 5.45E-01 1.73E+03 2.57E+04 2.19E+05
N50 1.25E+06 5.27E+05 6.43E+05 7.19E+05 2.39E+06 2.74E+06 3.45E+06

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.25E+06
LD50/ID50
1.25E+06
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
a
9.04E-01
Agent Strain
H1N1,A/California/10/78 attenuated strain
Experiment ID
257
Host type
human
Description
Humans/ type 4 Strain model data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
3 0 6 6
10 0 2 2
14 1 1 2
79 2 1 3
400 3 0 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.14 -0.00118 4 3.84 
1 		9.49 
0.71
Beta Poisson 2.14 3 7.81 
0.544
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.51E-02 4.00E-03 5.88E-03 6.35E-03 4.56E-02 4.56E-02 4.56E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 4.59E+01 1.52E+01 1.52E+01 1.52E+01 1.09E+02 1.18E+02 1.73E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
4.59E+01
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.51E-02
Agent Strain
type 4
Experiment ID
255
Host type
human
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