Description
Iowa isolate data 
Dose Infected Not infected Total
30 2 3 5
100 4 4 8
300 2 1 3
500 5 1 6
1000 2 0 2
1E+04 3 0 3
1E+05 1 0 1
1E+06 1 0 1

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 3.07 2 7 3.84 
0.157 		14.1 
0.879
Beta Poisson 1.07 6 12.6 
0.983
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 5.26E-03 2.25E-03 2.75E-03 3.08E-03 1.03E-02 1.19E-02 1.60E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.32E+02 4.33E+01 5.80E+01 6.72E+01 2.25E+02 2.52E+02 3.08E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.32E+02
Dose Units
oocysts
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
5.26E-03
Agent Strain
Iowa isolate
Experiment ID
139
Host type
human
Description
Human Inaba Strain 569 B 
Dose Cholera diarrhea No cholera diarrhea Total
10 0 2 2
1000 0 4 4
1E+04 0 13 13
1E+05 1 7 8
1E+06 6 17 23
1E+08 1 1 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 23.3 22.8 5 3.84 
1.81e-06 		11.1 
0.000297
Beta Poisson 0.504 4 9.49 
0.973
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.1E-01 1.94E-02 3.52E-02 3.83E-02 6.23E+01 4.54E+02 1.10E+03
N50 3.88E+07 1.13E+06 1.47E+06 1.71E+06 7.30E+11 4.70E+12 6.70E+18

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
3.88E+07
LD50/ID50
3.88E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
cholera diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (with NaHCO3)
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.10E-01
Agent Strain
Inaba 569B
Experiment ID
128
Host type
human
Description
Human Inaba Strain 569 B 
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
10 0 2 2
1000 0 4 4
1E+04 9 4 13
1E+05 6 2 8
1E+06 20 3 23
1E+08 2 0 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 55.2 51.9 5 3.84 
5.88e-13 		11.1 
1.19e-10
Beta Poisson 3.3 4 9.49 
0.508
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.18E-01 1.51E-01 1.84E-01 2.00E-01 6.52E-01 7.34E-01 1.66E+00
N50 6.82E+03 1.68E+03 2.35E+03 2.75E+03 1.83E+04 2.25E+04 3.38E+04

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
6.82E+03
LD50/ID50
6.82E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
any diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (with NaHCO3)
Contains Preferred Model
a
3.18E-01
Agent Strain
Inaba 569B
Experiment ID
126
Host type
human
Description
humans/ echovirus-12 strain 
Dose infected Non-infected Total
330 15 35 50
1000 9 11 20
3300 19 7 26
1E+04 12 0 12
33000 2 2 4
330000 2 1 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 122 110 5 3.84 
0 		11.1 
0
Beta Poisson 11.7 4 9.49 
0.0196
Neither the exponential nor beta-Poisson fits well; beta-Poisson is less bad.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.74E-01 1.24E-01 1.81E-01 2.09E-01 7.79E-01 9.41E-01 2.01E+00
N50 1.01E+03 3.84E+02 5.32E+02 5.94E+02 1.75E+03 1.97E+03 2.54E+03

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.01E+03
LD50/ID50
1.01E+03
Dose Units
PFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
a
3.74E-01
Agent Strain
strain 12
Experiment ID
112
Host type
human
Description
Iowa strain data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
30 1 4 5
100 3 5 8
300 2 1 3
500 5 1 6
1000 2 0 2
1E+04 3 0 3
1E+05 1 0 1
1E+06 1 0 1

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.503 0.131 7 3.84 
0.717 		14.1 
0.999
Beta Poisson 0.372 6 12.6 
0.999
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 4.19E-03 1.80E-03 2.22E-03 2.46E-03 7.52E-03 8.52E-03 1.12E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.65E+02 6.17E+01 8.14E+01 9.22E+01 2.82E+02 3.12E+02 3.84E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.65E+02
Dose Units
oocysts
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
4.19E-03
Agent Strain
Iowa strain
Experiment ID
108
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Subscribe to human