Description
Escherichia coli (EIEC 1624) in the human model data 
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 1 8 9
1E+08 3 2 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.99 2.98 2 3.84 
0.0845 		5.99 
0.224
Beta Poisson 0.0156 1 3.84 
0.901
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.22E-08 1.97E-09 2.19E-09 4.40E-09 4.03E-08 1.17E-07 2.50E-07
ID50/LD50/ETC* 5.7E+07 2.77E+06 5.92E+06 1.72E+07 1.58E+08 3.17E+08 3.52E+08
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
5.7E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.22E-08
Agent Strain
EIEC 1624
Experiment ID
40
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
EIEC disease, unbuffered, in the human model data
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 0 5 5
1E+06 1 8 9
1E+08 5 3 8
1E+08 3 2 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 3.19 2.24 5 3.84 
0.134 		11.1 
0.67
Beta Poisson 0.951 4 9.49 
0.917
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.07E-08 3.63E-09 4.79E-09 5.77E-09 2.04E-08 2.28E-08 3.21E-08
ID50/LD50/ETC* 6.5E+07 2.16E+07 3.04E+07 3.40E+07 1.20E+08 1.45E+08 1.91E+08
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
6.5E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.07E-08
Agent Strain
EIEC 4608
Experiment ID
39, 40
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Escherichia coli (EIEC 4608) in the human model data
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 0 5 5
1E+08 5 3 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.0986 -0.00188 2 3.84 
1 		5.99 
0.952
Beta Poisson 0.1 1 3.84 
0.751
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.
Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 9.7E-09 2.85E-09 2.86E-09 4.66E-09 2.04E-08 2.04E-08 5.07E-08
ID50/LD50/ETC* 7.14E+07 1.37E+07 3.40E+07 3.40E+07 1.49E+08 2.43E+08 2.44E+08
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
7.14E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
k
9.7E-09
Agent Strain
EIEC 4608
Experiment ID
39
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
ETEC disease, unbuffered, in the human model data
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+08 1 4 5
1E+08 2 3 5
1E+08 3 2 5
1.43E+08 6 2 8
1.73E+09 5 2 7
5.33E+09 6 2 8
1E+10 4 1 5
1E+10 3 2 5
1E+10 4 1 5
1.6E+10 7 1 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 68.4 62.9 10 3.84 
2.22e-15 		18.3 
8.97e-11
Beta Poisson 5.53 9 16.9 
0.786
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.06E-01 1.75E-02 1.17E-01 1.32E-01 3.79E-01 4.29E-01 5.57E-01
N50 1.28E+08 3.53E+05 3.17E+07 4.09E+07 3.83E+08 4.65E+08 6.86E+08

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
11.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.28E+08
LD50/ID50
1.28E+08
Dose Units
CFU
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.06E-01
Agent Strain
ETEC B7A
Experiment ID
38, 42, 99, 165
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
E. coli disease (ETEC, EPEC, EIEC) in the human model data
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 0 5 5
1E+06 1 8 9
1E+08 1 4 5
1E+08 5 3 8
1E+08 3 2 5
1E+08 2 3 5
1.43E+08 6 2 8
2.7E+08 9 7 16
1.73E+09 5 2 7
5.33E+09 6 2 8
1E+10 4 1 5
1E+10 3 2 5
1.6E+10 7 1 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 119 113 14 3.84 
0 		23.7 
0
Beta Poisson 6.56 13 22.4 
0.924
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.78E-01 9.39E-02 1.09E-01 1.19E-01 3.21E-01 3.63E-01 4.77E-01
N50 8.6E+07 1.75E+07 2.62E+07 3.25E+07 2.63E+08 3.23E+08 5.21E+08
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
15.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
8.6E+07
LD50/ID50
8.6E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.78E-01
Agent Strain
ETEC B7A
Experiment ID
38, 39, 40, 42, 99, 144
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Subscribe to mild to severe diarrhea