Description
mice/ Strain 74/81 data
Dose Dead Survived Total
200 0 10 10
4000 1 9 10
5E+04 12 0 12
4E+05 16 0 16

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.34 -0.00145 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.506
Beta Poisson 2.34 2 5.99 
0.311
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 6.48E-05 5.45E-05 5.45E-05 5.45E-05 9.71E-05 9.71E-05 1.24E-04
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.07E+04 5.57E+03 7.14E+03 7.14E+03 1.27E+04 1.27E+04 1.27E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.07E+04
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
6.48E-05
Agent Strain
strain 74/81
Experiment ID
242
Host type
mice
Description
diabetic rat and 316c strain 
Dose DEATH NOT DEATH Total
3000 6 4 10
3E+04 7 3 10
3E+05 7 3 10
3E+06 10 0 10
3E+07 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 43.4 39 4 3.84 
4.25e-10 		9.49 
8.61e-09
Beta Poisson 4.39 3 7.81 
0.222
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 500 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.65E-01 7.56E-02 1.30E-01 1.54E-01 4.94E-01 5.69E-01 8.88E-01
N50 2.27E+03 7.58E-02 1.50E+01 5.32E+01 8.62E+03 1.11E+04 1.74E+04
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
2.27E+03
LD50/ID50
2.27E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intraperitoneal
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.65E-01
Agent Strain
316c
Experiment ID
23
Host type
diabetic rat
Experiment Dataset
Description
Pooled data of guinea pig and diabetic rat  
Dose DEATH NOT DEATH Total
44 1 4 5
440 3 2 5
3000 6 4 10
4400 4 1 5
3E+04 7 3 10
44000 5 0 5
3E+05 7 3 10
440000 5 0 5
3E+06 10 0 10
4.4E+06 4 1 5
3E+07 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 163 152 10 3.84 
0 		18.3 
0
Beta Poisson 10.1 9 16.9 
0.343
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.13E-01 9.14E-02 1.26E-01 1.39E-01 3.38E-01 3.76E-01 5.60E-01
N50 4.77E+02 3.04E+00 1.63E+01 7.19E+01 2.16E+03 2.75E+03 4.44E+03
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
11.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
4.77E+02
LD50/ID50
4.77E+02
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intraperitoneal
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.13E-01
Agent Strain
W294, 316c
Experiment ID
21,23
Host type
guinea pig and diabetic rat
Experiment Dataset
Description
Guinea Pigs W294 Strain Data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
44 1 4 5
440 3 2 5
4400 4 1 5
44000 5 0 5
440000 5 0 5
4.4E+06 4 1 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 70.3 66.1 5 3.84 
4.44e-16 		11.1 
8.93e-14
Beta Poisson 4.14 4 9.49 
0.387
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.67E-01 3.36E-02 8.80E-02 1.16E-01 1.05E+01 3.45E+02 3.55E+03
N50 2.55E+02 4.80E-07 2.49E+00 1.48E+01 1.35E+03 1.80E+03 3.22E+03
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
2.55E+02
LD50/ID50
2.55E+02
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intraperitoneal
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.67E-01
Agent Strain
W294
Experiment ID
21
Host type
guinea pig
Experiment Dataset
Description
Mouse/ KIM D27 model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 0 10 10
1000 2 8 10
1E+04 6 4 10
1E+05 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.21 0.138 3 3.84 
0.711 		7.81 
0.75
Beta Poisson 1.07 2 5.99 
0.585
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.07E-04 3.85E-05 4.70E-05 5.57E-05 1.93E-04 2.22E-04 3.29E-04
ID50/LD50/ETC* 6.47E+03 2.11E+03 3.12E+03 3.59E+03 1.24E+04 1.48E+04 1.80E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
6.47E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.07E-04
Agent Strain
KIM D27
Experiment ID
2
Host type
mice
Description

Optimization Output for experiment 18 and 23 pooled (B. pseudomallei)

Pooled data of C57BL/6 mice and diabetic rat 
Dose DEATH NOT DEATH Total
150 0 6 6
450 1 5 6
1350 1 5 6
3000 6 4 10
4050 3 3 6
12200 3 3 6
3E+04 7 3 10
3E+05 7 3 10
3E+06 10 0 10
3E+07 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 63.3 56.6 9 3.84 
5.42e-14 		16.9 
3.15e-10
Beta Poisson 6.68 8 15.5 
0.571
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.28E-01 1.94E-01 2.16E-01 2.31E-01 5.15E-01 5.86E-01 8.32E-01
N50 5.43E+03 1.82E+03 2.37E+03 2.64E+03 1.23E+04 1.39E+04 1.68E+04
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

 

# of Doses
10.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
5.43E+03
LD50/ID50
5.43E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Contains Preferred Model
a
3.28E-01
Agent Strain
KHW,316c
Experiment ID
18,23
Host type
C57BL/6 mice and diabetic rat
Experiment Dataset
Description
Guinea pig/ Josiah strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 1 7 8
48 1 7 8
724 3 5 8
5370 4 4 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 14.4 13.8 3 3.84 
0.000203 		7.81 
0.00237
Beta Poisson 0.633 2 5.99 
0.729
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 7.94E-02 9.77E-04 9.85E-04 9.87E-04 4.57E-01 1.19E+00 5.76E+02
N50 1.43E+04 2.13E-01 9.22E-01 2.90E+00 1.82E+13 3.06E+17 2.25E+34

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.43E+04
LD50/ID50
1.43E+04
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
a
7.94E-02
Agent Strain
Josiah strain
Experiment ID
15
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Guinea pig/ Josiah strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
0.02 1 9 10
0.2 4 6 10
2 10 0 10
24 10 0 10
2400 15 0 15
240000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.42 -0.000621 5 3.84 
1 		11.1 
0.995
Beta Poisson 0.42 4 9.49 
0.981
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.95E+00 1.35E+00 1.61E+00 1.65E+00 5.43E+00 5.90E+00 7.52E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.35E-01 9.21E-02 1.17E-01 1.28E-01 4.21E-01 4.32E-01 5.14E-01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.35E-01
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
subcutaneous
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.95E+00
Agent Strain
Josiah strain
Experiment ID
13
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Mouse/ CO92 model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 1 3 4
1000 3 1 4
1E+04 4 0 4
1E+05 4 0 4

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.338 0.195 3 3.84 
0.658 		7.81 
0.953
Beta Poisson 0.142 2 5.99 
0.931
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.63E-03 3.62E-04 5.50E-04 6.22E-04 7.02E-03 7.02E-03 7.02E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 4.26E+02 9.87E+01 9.87E+01 9.87E+01 1.11E+03 1.26E+03 1.92E+03
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
4.26E+02
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.63E-03
Agent Strain
CO92
Experiment ID
1
Host type
mice
Experiment Dataset
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 1 3 4
1000 3 1 4
1E+04 4 0 4
1E+05 4 0 4
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