Description
TITLE 
Dose INFECTION NOT

INFECTION || Total
0.05 0 4 4
0.15 1 4 5
0.5 3 14 17
1.5 4 10 14
5 4 11 15
50 28 14 42
Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 29.2 26.2 5 3.84 
{{{pbPbetter}}} 		11.1 
2.16e-05
Beta Poisson 2.93 4 9.49 
0

selection
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.
Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrapiterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2E-01 7.86E-02 9.79E-02 1.11E-01 4.65E-01 5.58E-01 8.66E-01
N50 1.05E+01 3.00E+00 3.98E+00 4.65E+00 3.67E+01 5.32E+01 1.22E+02

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.05E+01
LD50/ID50
1.05E+01
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
a
2,00E-01
Agent Strain
type 39
Experiment ID
313
Host type
human
Description
TITLE 
Dose INFECTION NOT

INFECTION || Total
0.05 0 4 4
0.15 1 4 5
0.5 0 4 4
0.5 3 14 17
1.5 2 3 5
1.5 4 10 14
5 1 4 5
5 4 11 15
15 4 3 7
50 28 14 42
150 13 8 21
300 5 2 7

"

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 78.6 72.3 11 3.84 
{{{pbPbetter}}} 		19.7 
2.8e-12
Beta Poisson 6.22 10 18.3 
0.796
{{{interpretation}}}

"

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrapiterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.82E-01 1.04E-03 1.03E-01 1.14E-01 3.04E-01 3.38E-01 4.09E-01
N50 1.38E+01 2.98E+00 5.64E+00 6.67E+00 3.77E+01 4.98E+01 1.32E+02

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
12.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.38E+01
LD50/ID50
1.38E+01
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.82E-01
Agent Strain
type 14
Experiment ID
312, 313
Host type
human
Description
TITLE 
Dose INFECTION NOT

INFECTION || Total
0.5 0 4 4
1.5 2 3 5
5 1 4 5
15 4 3 7
150 13 8 21
300 5 2 7
Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 24.3 21.5 5 3.84 
{{{pbPbetter}}} 		11.1 
0.000194
Beta Poisson 2.77 4 9.49 
0

selection
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.
Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrapiterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.81E-01 3.92E-02 7.30E-02 9.02E-02 4.00E-01 4.79E-01 7.28E-01
N50 2.22E+01 3.12E+00 5.01E+00 6.38E+00 1.22E+02 2.06E+02 1.26E+03

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
2.22E+01
LD50/ID50
2.22E+01
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
a
1.81E-01
Agent Strain
type 14
Experiment ID
312
Host type
human
Description

Optimization Output for experiment 311

TITLE 
Dose INFECTION NOT

INFECTION || Total
0.05 0 2 2
0.15 1 3 4
0.5 5 2 7
1.5 18 1 19
5 1 0 1
50 19 1 20
Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 61.7 56.8 5 3.84 
{{{pbPbetter}}} 		11.1 
5.32e-12
Beta Poisson 4.95 4 9.49 
0

selection
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.
Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrapiterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 7.01E-01 2.29E-01 3.14E-01 3.63E-01 1.81E+06 3.82E+06 1.41E+07
N50 1.9E-01 2.27E-02 5.85E-02 7.93E-02 4.20E-01 4.52E-01 5.56E-01

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.9E-01
LD50/ID50
1.9E-01
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
a
7.01E-01
Agent Strain
type 39
Experiment ID
311
Host type
human
Description
TITLE 
Dose INFECTION NOT

INFECTION || Total
0.5 1 4 5
1.5 2 3 5
5 3 2 5
15 2 1 3
150 14 5 19
300 5 0 5
Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 29.7 27.3 5 3.84 
{{{pbPbetter}}} 		11.1 
1.71e-05
Beta Poisson 2.42 4 9.49 
0

selection
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.
Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrapiterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.52E-01 9.79E-04 9.14E-02 1.16E-01 5.50E-01 6.41E-01 1.06E+00
N50 3.83E+00 9.08E-03 3.23E-01 6.41E-01 1.48E+01 2.04E+01 8.86E+01

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
3.83E+00
LD50/ID50
3.83E+00
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
a
2.52E-01
Agent Strain
type 14
Experiment ID
310
Host type
human
Description
Mice/MHV-1 strains model data [3]
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 0 5 5
50 1 4 5
500 3 2 5
5000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.606 0.0689 3 3.84 
0.793 		7.81 
0.895
Beta Poisson 0.537 2 5.99 
0.765
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.14E-03 6.25E-04 6.55E-04 9.06E-04 6.58E-03 6.58E-03 9.86E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 3.24E+02 7.03E+01 1.05E+02 1.05E+02 7.65E+02 1.06E+03 1.11E+03
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
3.24E+02
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.14E-03
Agent Strain
MHV-1
Experiment ID
261
Host type
A/J mice
Description
Pooled dose response model data [1]
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 0 5 5
50 1 4 5
240 1 2 3
500 3 2 5
800 3 0 3
2400 2 0 2
5000 5 0 5
12000 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.75 -0.00181 7 3.84 
1 		14.1 
0.972
Beta Poisson 1.75 6 12.6 
0.941
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.46E-03 1.07E-03 1.28E-03 1.35E-03 4.59E-03 5.27E-03 6.80E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.82E+02 1.02E+02 1.32E+02 1.51E+02 5.13E+02 5.43E+02 6.47E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
0.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.82E+02
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.46E-03
Agent Strain
rSARS-CoV
Experiment ID
260, 261
Host type
mice hACE-2 and A/J
Description
mice/rSARS-CoV strain model data [2]
Dose Dead Survived Total
240 1 2 3
800 3 0 3
2400 2 0 2
12000 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.968 -0.000923 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.809
Beta Poisson 0.969 2 5.99 
0.616
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.97E-03 1.90E-03 1.90E-03 1.90E-03 2.97E-03 2.97E-03 2.97E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.33E+02 2.33E+02 2.33E+02 2.33E+02 3.64E+02 3.64E+02 3.64E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.33E+02
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.97E-03
Agent Strain
rSARS-CoV
Experiment ID
260
Host type
mice hACE-2
Description
mice/ H5N1,DKGX/35 strain model data [4]
Dose Dead Survived Total
10 1 4 5
100 3 2 5
1000 5 0 5
1E+04 5 0 5
1E+05 5 0 5
1E+06 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.498 0.0917 5 3.84 
0.762 		11.1 
0.992
Beta Poisson 0.406 4 9.49 
0.982
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.09E-02 3.14E-03 3.29E-03 4.56E-03 2.78E-02 3.48E-02 5.42E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 6.38E+01 1.28E+01 1.99E+01 2.49E+01 1.52E+02 2.11E+02 2.21E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
6.38E+01
Dose Units
EID50
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.09E-02
Agent Strain
H5N1, DKGX/35 strain
Experiment ID
259
Host type
mice
Description
human/H3N2, A/Washington/897/80 attenuated strain model data [3]
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
1E+05 2 10 12
1E+06 8 5 13
1E+07 16 3 19
31622777 16 4 20
1E+08 19 0 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 39.1 34.8 4 3.84 
3.66e-09 		9.49 
6.79e-08
Beta Poisson 4.26 3 7.81 
0.235
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 4.29E-01 2.14E-01 2.58E-01 2.83E-01 7.58E-01 8.71E-01 1.20E+00
N50 6.66E+05 1.36E+05 2.19E+05 2.68E+05 1.63E+06 1.87E+06 2.49E+06

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
6.66E+05
LD50/ID50
6.66E+05
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
a
4.29E-01
Agent Strain
H3N2,A/Washington/897/80 attenuated strain
Experiment ID
258
Host type
human
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