Description
Mouse/ CO92 model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
2 0 20 20
8 5 15 20
26 13 7 20
74 9 1 10
257 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 3.12 -9.43e-05 4 3.84 
1 		9.49 
0.539
Beta Poisson 3.12 3 7.81 
0.374
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 3.45E-02 2.01E-02 2.28E-02 2.44E-02 4.89E-02 5.18E-02 5.79E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.01E+01 1.20E+01 1.34E+01 1.42E+01 2.84E+01 3.04E+01 3.44E+01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.01E+01
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intraperitoneal
Contains Preferred Model
k
3.45E-02
Agent Strain
CO92
Experiment ID
3
Host type
mice
Description
Mice/phase I Ohio strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
0.7 0 30 30
7 0 20 20
70 0 30 30
7000 0 30 30
7E+05 0 30 30
7E+06 1 19 20
7E+07 6 24 30
7E+08 16 14 30
7E+09 23 7 30
7E+10 19 1 20

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 73.9 72.8 9 3.84 
0 		16.9 
2.65e-12
Beta Poisson 1.11 8 15.5 
0.997
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.57E-01 1.91E-01 2.20E-01 2.38E-01 6.34E-01 7.08E-01 9.84E-01
N50 4.93E+08 1.89E+08 2.41E+08 2.73E+08 9.34E+08 1.06E+09 1.36E+09

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

 

# of Doses
10.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
4.93E+08
LD50/ID50
4.93E+08
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intraperitoneal
Contains Preferred Model
a
3.57E-01
Agent Strain
phase I Ohio
Experiment ID
28
Host type
C57BL/1OScN mice
Description
Mice/ Aa strain model data
Dose Dead Survived Total
1E+04 0 22 22
1E+05 1 21 22
1E+06 1 10 11
1E+07 16 6 22
1E+08 22 0 22

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.27 0.0341 4 3.84 
0.854 		9.49 
0.867
Beta Poisson 1.23 3 7.81 
0.745
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.33E-07 6.86E-08 7.91E-08 8.83E-08 2.06E-07 2.24E-07 2.75E-07
ID50/LD50/ETC* 5.22E+06 2.52E+06 3.10E+06 3.37E+06 7.85E+06 8.76E+06 1.01E+07
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
5.22E+06
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.33E-07
Agent Strain
Aa strain
Experiment ID
275
Host type
mice
Description

Optimization Output for experiment 274

Monkeys / SCHU S-4 model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 1 5 6
11 3 3 6
32 4 2 6
65 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.26 -0.000367 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.738
Beta Poisson 1.26 2 5.99 
0.531
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 4.73E-02 2.28E-02 2.72E-02 2.98E-02 7.81E-02 9.03E-02 1.11E-01
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.46E+01 6.27E+00 7.67E+00 8.88E+00 2.33E+01 2.55E+01 3.04E+01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.46E+01
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
4.73E-02
Agent Strain
SCHU S-4
Experiment ID
274
Host type
monkey
Description
Mice/MHV-1 strains model data [3]
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 0 5 5
50 1 4 5
500 3 2 5
5000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.606 0.0689 3 3.84 
0.793 		7.81 
0.895
Beta Poisson 0.537 2 5.99 
0.765
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.14E-03 6.25E-04 6.55E-04 9.06E-04 6.58E-03 6.58E-03 9.86E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 3.24E+02 7.03E+01 1.05E+02 1.05E+02 7.65E+02 1.06E+03 1.11E+03
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
3.24E+02
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.14E-03
Agent Strain
MHV-1
Experiment ID
261
Host type
A/J mice
Description
Pooled dose response model data [1]
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 0 5 5
50 1 4 5
240 1 2 3
500 3 2 5
800 3 0 3
2400 2 0 2
5000 5 0 5
12000 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.75 -0.00181 7 3.84 
1 		14.1 
0.972
Beta Poisson 1.75 6 12.6 
0.941
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.46E-03 1.07E-03 1.28E-03 1.35E-03 4.59E-03 5.27E-03 6.80E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.82E+02 1.02E+02 1.32E+02 1.51E+02 5.13E+02 5.43E+02 6.47E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
0.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.82E+02
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.46E-03
Agent Strain
rSARS-CoV
Experiment ID
260, 261
Host type
mice hACE-2 and A/J
Description
mice/rSARS-CoV strain model data [2]
Dose Dead Survived Total
240 1 2 3
800 3 0 3
2400 2 0 2
12000 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.968 -0.000923 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.809
Beta Poisson 0.969 2 5.99 
0.616
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.97E-03 1.90E-03 1.90E-03 1.90E-03 2.97E-03 2.97E-03 2.97E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.33E+02 2.33E+02 2.33E+02 2.33E+02 3.64E+02 3.64E+02 3.64E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.33E+02
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.97E-03
Agent Strain
rSARS-CoV
Experiment ID
260
Host type
mice hACE-2
Description
Mice/Nine mile phase I model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
0.05 0 10 10
0.5 0 10 10
5 0 10 10
50 0 10 10
501 0 10 10
5010 0 10 10
50100 0 10 10
501000 0 10 10
5010000 0 10 10
5.01E+07 0 10 10
5.01E+08 1 9 10
5.01E+09 3 7 10
5.01E+10 9 1 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.63 0.936 12 3.84 
0.333 		21 
1
Beta Poisson 0.693 11 19.7 
1
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 5.7E-11 2.31E-11 2.94E-11 3.33E-11 1.38E-10 1.61E-10 2.13E-10
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.22E+10 3.25E+09 4.30E+09 5.02E+09 2.08E+10 2.36E+10 2.99E+10
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
13.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.22E+10
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intraperitoneal
Contains Preferred Model
k
5.7E-11
Agent Strain
Nine mile phase I
Experiment ID
26
Host type
C57BL/6 mice
Description
mice/ H5N1,DKGX/35 strain model data [4]
Dose Dead Survived Total
10 1 4 5
100 3 2 5
1000 5 0 5
1E+04 5 0 5
1E+05 5 0 5
1E+06 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.498 0.0917 5 3.84 
0.762 		11.1 
0.992
Beta Poisson 0.406 4 9.49 
0.982
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.09E-02 3.14E-03 3.29E-03 4.56E-03 2.78E-02 3.48E-02 5.42E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 6.38E+01 1.28E+01 1.99E+01 2.49E+01 1.52E+02 2.11E+02 2.21E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
6.38E+01
Dose Units
EID50
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.09E-02
Agent Strain
H5N1, DKGX/35 strain
Experiment ID
259
Host type
mice
Description
Mice/Naegleria fowleri LEE strain data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
1E+06 4 16 20
2.5E+06 12 8 20
5E+06 14 6 20
1E+07 20 0 20

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 3.47 -0.000862 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.325
Beta Poisson 3.47 2 5.99 
0.177
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 3.07E-07 2.11E-07 2.31E-07 2.41E-07 3.98E-07 4.21E-07 4.68E-07
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.26E+06 1.48E+06 1.65E+06 1.74E+06 2.88E+06 3.01E+06 3.28E+06
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.26E+06
Dose Units
no of trophozoites
Response
death
Exposure Route
intravenous
Contains Preferred Model
k
3.07E-07
Agent Strain
LEE strain
Experiment ID
254
Host type
mice
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