\[P(response)=1-exp(-k\times dose)\]

Description
Guinea pig/ATCC 6605 Strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
30 0 6 6
300 1 5 6
3000 0 10 10
3E+04 3 7 10
3E+05 8 2 10
3E+06 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 8.56 1.81 5 3.84 
0.178 		11.1 
0.128
Beta Poisson 6.75 4 9.49 
0.15
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 7.11E-06 2.60E-06 3.52E-06 3.87E-06 1.61E-05 1.97E-05 2.85E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC* 9.75E+04 2.43E+04 3.52E+04 4.30E+04 1.79E+05 1.97E+05 2.66E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

 

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
9.75E+04
Dose Units
spores
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
7.11E-06
Agent Strain
ATCC 6605
Experiment ID
85
Host type
guinea pig
Description
pigs/ Porcine enterovirus type 7 
Dose infected Non-infected Total
250 4 2 6
250 3 3 6
1000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.614 -5.49e-05 2 3.84 
1 		5.99 
0.736
Beta Poisson 0.614 1 3.84 
0.433
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 3.74E-03 1.83E-03 2.19E-03 2.19E-03 5.62E-03 5.62E-03 5.62E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.85E+02 1.23E+02 1.23E+02 1.23E+02 3.16E+02 3.16E+02 3.79E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.85E+02
Dose Units
PFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
3.74E-03
Agent Strain
porcine, PE7-05i
Experiment ID
63
Host type
pig
Description
Pigs/ Porcine enterovirus type 3 Strain model data 
Dose infected Non-infected Total
100 0 3 3
250 0 6 6
1000 2 4 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.24 -0.000314 2 3.84 
1 		5.99 
0.537
Beta Poisson 1.24 1 3.84 
0.265
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.96E-04 2.40E-17 2.40E-17 2.40E-17 7.19E-04 7.19E-04 1.02E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.34E+03 6.77E+02 9.64E+02 9.64E+02 2.89E+16 2.89E+16 2.89E+16
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.34E+03
Dose Units
PFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.96E-04
Agent Strain
porcine, PE3-ECPO-6
Experiment ID
62
Host type
pig
Description
Chimpanzee data(Poliovirus type2) 
Dose INFECTED NON-INFECTED Total
15800 0 2 2
1580000 1 2 3
1.58E+07 5 3 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.21 1.17 2 3.84 
0.279 		5.99 
0.547
Beta Poisson 0.0337 1 3.84 
0.854
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 7.18E-08 1.75E-08 2.65E-08 2.84E-08 1.75E-07 2.12E-07 6.87E-07
ID50/LD50/ETC* 9.66E+06 1.01E+06 3.28E+06 3.97E+06 2.44E+07 2.62E+07 3.96E+07
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
9.66E+06
Dose Units
TCID50
Response
alimentary infection
Exposure Route
oral (liquid)
Contains Preferred Model
k
7.18E-08
Agent Strain
type 2,attenuated
Experiment ID
59
Host type
Chimpanzee
Description
Human data( Poliovirus type 1) 
Dose INFECTED NON-INFECTED Total
0.2 0 2 2
2 2 1 3
20 4 0 4

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.415 -7.99e-07 2 3.84 
1 		5.99 
0.812
Beta Poisson 0.415 1 3.84 
0.519
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 4.91E-01 1.30E-01 1.30E-01 2.25E-01 1.39E+00 1.39E+00 1.39E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.41E+00 5.00E-01 5.00E-01 5.00E-01 3.08E+00 5.33E+00 5.33E+00
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.41E+00
Dose Units
PD50 (mouse paralytic doses)
Response
alimentary infection
Exposure Route
oral (capsule)
Contains Preferred Model
k
4.91E-01
Agent Strain
type 1,attenuated
Experiment ID
56
Host type
human
Description
Dose response data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
30 0 8 8
300 0 7 7
3E+04 0 6 6
125000 2 1 3
5E+05 4 1 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.49 0.0417 4 3.84 
0.838 		9.49 
0.646
Beta Poisson 2.45 3 7.81 
0.484
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 3.68E-06 1.13E-06 1.35E-06 1.88E-06 9.60E-06 9.60E-06 9.60E-06
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.89E+05 7.22E+04 7.22E+04 7.22E+04 3.68E+05 5.14E+05 6.14E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.89E+05
Dose Units
Cysts
Response
infection
Exposure Route
stomach tube
Contains Preferred Model
k
3.68E-06
Agent Strain
From infected humans
Experiment ID
48
Host type
muskrat
Description
Dose response data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
1 0 5 5
10 2 0 2
25 6 14 20
100 2 0 2
1E+04 3 0 3
1E+05 3 0 3
3E+05 3 0 3
1E+06 2 0 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 8.37 -0.000469 7 3.84 
1 		14.1 
0.301
Beta Poisson 8.37 6 12.6 
0.212
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.99E-02 8.50E-03 1.05E-02 1.26E-02 2.92E-02 3.29E-02 3.71E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 3.48E+01 1.87E+01 2.11E+01 2.38E+01 5.49E+01 6.60E+01 8.15E+01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
3.48E+01
Dose Units
Cysts
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.99E-02
Agent Strain
From an infected human
Experiment ID
46
Host type
human
Description
Escherichia coli (EIEC 1624) in the human model data 
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 1 8 9
1E+08 3 2 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.99 2.98 2 3.84 
0.0845 		5.99 
0.224
Beta Poisson 0.0156 1 3.84 
0.901
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.22E-08 1.97E-09 2.19E-09 4.40E-09 4.03E-08 1.17E-07 2.50E-07
ID50/LD50/ETC* 5.7E+07 2.77E+06 5.92E+06 1.72E+07 1.58E+08 3.17E+08 3.52E+08
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
5.7E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.22E-08
Agent Strain
EIEC 1624
Experiment ID
40
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
EIEC disease, unbuffered, in the human model data
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 0 5 5
1E+06 1 8 9
1E+08 5 3 8
1E+08 3 2 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 3.19 2.24 5 3.84 
0.134 		11.1 
0.67
Beta Poisson 0.951 4 9.49 
0.917
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.07E-08 3.63E-09 4.79E-09 5.77E-09 2.04E-08 2.28E-08 3.21E-08
ID50/LD50/ETC* 6.5E+07 2.16E+07 3.04E+07 3.40E+07 1.20E+08 1.45E+08 1.91E+08
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
6.5E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.07E-08
Agent Strain
EIEC 4608
Experiment ID
39, 40
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Escherichia coli (EIEC 4608) in the human model data
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 0 5 5
1E+08 5 3 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.0986 -0.00188 2 3.84 
1 		5.99 
0.952
Beta Poisson 0.1 1 3.84 
0.751
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.
Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 9.7E-09 2.85E-09 2.86E-09 4.66E-09 2.04E-08 2.04E-08 5.07E-08
ID50/LD50/ETC* 7.14E+07 1.37E+07 3.40E+07 3.40E+07 1.49E+08 2.43E+08 2.44E+08
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
7.14E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Contains Preferred Model
k
9.7E-09
Agent Strain
EIEC 4608
Experiment ID
39
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
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