\[P(response)=1-exp(-k\times dose)\]

Description
mice/ Strain 74/81 data
Dose Dead Survived Total
200 0 10 10
4000 1 9 10
5E+04 12 0 12
4E+05 16 0 16

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.34 -0.00145 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.506
Beta Poisson 2.34 2 5.99 
0.311
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 6.48E-05 5.45E-05 5.45E-05 5.45E-05 9.71E-05 9.71E-05 1.24E-04
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.07E+04 5.57E+03 7.14E+03 7.14E+03 1.27E+04 1.27E+04 1.27E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.07E+04
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
6.48E-05
Agent Strain
strain 74/81
Experiment ID
242
Host type
mice
Description
Guinea pigs/ Philadelphia 1 strain data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
1 0 4 4
5 4 10 14
50 17 1 18
100 8 0 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.582 0.000479 3 3.84 
0.983 		7.81 
0.9
Beta Poisson 0.582 2 5.99 
0.748
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 5.99E-02 3.26E-02 3.90E-02 4.18E-02 1.11E-01 1.31E-01 1.57E-01
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.16E+01 4.42E+00 5.28E+00 6.25E+00 1.66E+01 1.78E+01 2.13E+01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.16E+01
Dose Units
CFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
inhalation
Contains Preferred Model
k
5.99E-02
Agent Strain
Philadelphia 1
Experiment ID
241
Host type
guinea pig
Description
Human/Salmonella newportmodel data ]
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
152000 3 3 6
385000 6 2 8
1350000 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.16 -3.32e-05 2 3.84 
1 		5.99 
0.923
Beta Poisson 0.16 1 3.84 
0.689
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 3.97E-06 1.75E-06 2.16E-06 2.32E-06 7.36E-06 9.04E-06 1.27E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.74E+05 5.45E+04 7.67E+04 9.41E+04 2.98E+05 3.20E+05 3.97E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.74E+05
Dose Units
CFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
3.97E-06
Agent Strain
*Salmonella newport*
Experiment ID
235
Host type
human
Description
Mouse/ KIM D27 model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 0 10 10
1000 2 8 10
1E+04 6 4 10
1E+05 10 0 10

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.21 0.138 3 3.84 
0.711 		7.81 
0.75
Beta Poisson 1.07 2 5.99 
0.585
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.07E-04 3.85E-05 4.70E-05 5.57E-05 1.93E-04 2.22E-04 3.29E-04
ID50/LD50/ETC* 6.47E+03 2.11E+03 3.12E+03 3.59E+03 1.24E+04 1.48E+04 1.80E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
6.47E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.07E-04
Agent Strain
KIM D27
Experiment ID
2
Host type
mice
Description
C57BL/6 Mice KHW Strain Data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
150 0 6 6
450 1 5 6
1350 1 5 6
4050 3 3 6
12200 3 3 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 3.36 2.17 4 3.84 
0.141 		9.49 
0.499
Beta Poisson 1.19 3 7.81 
0.755
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1E-04 2.87E-05 4.15E-05 4.99E-05 1.89E-04 2.13E-04 2.70E-04
ID50/LD50/ETC* 6.92E+03 2.57E+03 3.26E+03 3.68E+03 1.39E+04 1.67E+04 2.41E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
6.92E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.00E-04
Agent Strain
KHW
Experiment ID
18
Host type
C57BL/6 mice
Experiment Dataset
Description
BALB/c Mice KHW Strain Data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
5 0 6 6
15 0 6 6
45 3 1 4
135 4 2 6
405 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 5.25 -0.000362 4 3.84 
1 		9.49 
0.263
Beta Poisson 5.25 3 7.81 
0.154
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.04E-02 4.94E-03 5.96E-03 6.60E-03 1.92E-02 2.45E-02 2.45E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 6.63E+01 2.82E+01 2.82E+01 3.61E+01 1.05E+02 1.16E+02 1.40E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

 

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

 

 

 

# of Doses
5.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
6.63E+01
Dose Units
CFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.04E-02
Agent Strain
KHW
Experiment ID
17
Host type
BALB/c mice
Experiment Dataset
Description
EPEC, infection, buffered, in the human model data
Dose Shedding in feces No shedding in feces Total
1E+06 3 1 4
1E+06 5 0 5
1E+06 4 1 5
1E+08 5 0 5
1E+08 5 0 5
9E+08 8 0 8
1E+10 10 0 10
1E+10 9 0 9
1E+10 14 0 14
1E+10 5 0 5
1E+10 5 0 5
1E+10 5 0 5
2.3E+10 19 0 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.98 2.71e-06 12 3.84 
0.999 		21 
0.999
Beta Poisson 1.98 11 19.7 
0.999
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.95E-06 8.47E-07 1.03E-06 1.25E-06 2.64E-06 2.64E-06 2.64E-06
ID50/LD50/ETC* 3.56E+05 2.63E+05 2.63E+05 2.63E+05 5.53E+05 6.73E+05 8.18E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

 

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
13.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
3.56E+05
Dose Units
CFU
Response
shedding in feces
Exposure Route
oral (w. 2g NaHCO3)
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.95E-06
Agent Strain
EPEC E2348/69 (O127:H6)
Experiment ID
154, 156, 158, 160, 219, 220, 221
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
TAMU data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
10 2 1 3
30 2 1 3
100 3 0 3
500 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.07 0.21 3 3.84 
0.647 		7.81 
0.783
Beta Poisson 0.864 2 5.99 
0.649
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 5.72E-02 1.80E-02 1.92E-02 2.46E-02 2.65E+00 2.65E+00 2.65E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.21E+01 2.61E-01 2.61E-01 2.61E-01 2.82E+01 3.61E+01 3.84E+01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

 

 

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.21E+01
Dose Units
oocysts
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
5.72E-02
Agent Strain
TAMU isolate
Experiment ID
140
Host type
human
Description
Iowa isolate data 
Dose Infected Not infected Total
30 2 3 5
100 4 4 8
300 2 1 3
500 5 1 6
1000 2 0 2
1E+04 3 0 3
1E+05 1 0 1
1E+06 1 0 1

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 3.07 2 7 3.84 
0.157 		14.1 
0.879
Beta Poisson 1.07 6 12.6 
0.983
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 5.26E-03 2.25E-03 2.75E-03 3.08E-03 1.03E-02 1.19E-02 1.60E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.32E+02 4.33E+01 5.80E+01 6.72E+01 2.25E+02 2.52E+02 3.08E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.32E+02
Dose Units
oocysts
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
5.26E-03
Agent Strain
Iowa isolate
Experiment ID
139
Host type
human
Description
Guinea pig/ Josiah strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
0.02 1 9 10
0.2 4 6 10
2 10 0 10
24 10 0 10
2400 15 0 15
240000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.42 -0.000621 5 3.84 
1 		11.1 
0.995
Beta Poisson 0.42 4 9.49 
0.981
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.95E+00 1.35E+00 1.61E+00 1.65E+00 5.43E+00 5.90E+00 7.52E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.35E-01 9.21E-02 1.17E-01 1.28E-01 4.21E-01 4.32E-01 5.14E-01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
2.35E-01
Dose Units
PFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
subcutaneous
Contains Preferred Model
k
2.95E+00
Agent Strain
Josiah strain
Experiment ID
13
Host type
guinea pig
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