Description
Human Inaba Strain 569 B 
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
10 0 2 2
1000 0 4 4
1E+04 9 4 13
1E+05 6 2 8
1E+06 20 3 23
1E+08 2 0 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 55.2 51.9 5 3.84 
5.88e-13 		11.1 
1.19e-10
Beta Poisson 3.3 4 9.49 
0.508
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.18E-01 1.51E-01 1.84E-01 2.00E-01 6.52E-01 7.34E-01 1.66E+00
N50 6.82E+03 1.68E+03 2.35E+03 2.75E+03 1.83E+04 2.25E+04 3.38E+04

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
6.82E+03
LD50/ID50
6.82E+03
Dose Units
CFU
Response
any diarrhea
Exposure Route
oral (with NaHCO3)
Contains Preferred Model
a
3.18E-01
Agent Strain
Inaba 569B
Experiment ID
126
Host type
human
Description
humans/ echovirus-12 strain 
Dose infected Non-infected Total
330 15 35 50
1000 9 11 20
3300 19 7 26
1E+04 12 0 12
33000 2 2 4
330000 2 1 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 122 110 5 3.84 
0 		11.1 
0
Beta Poisson 11.7 4 9.49 
0.0196
Neither the exponential nor beta-Poisson fits well; beta-Poisson is less bad.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.74E-01 1.24E-01 1.81E-01 2.09E-01 7.79E-01 9.41E-01 2.01E+00
N50 1.01E+03 3.84E+02 5.32E+02 5.94E+02 1.75E+03 1.97E+03 2.54E+03

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
N50
1.01E+03
LD50/ID50
1.01E+03
Dose Units
PFU
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
a
3.74E-01
Agent Strain
strain 12
Experiment ID
112
Host type
human
Description
Iowa strain data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
30 1 4 5
100 3 5 8
300 2 1 3
500 5 1 6
1000 2 0 2
1E+04 3 0 3
1E+05 1 0 1
1E+06 1 0 1

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.503 0.131 7 3.84 
0.717 		14.1 
0.999
Beta Poisson 0.372 6 12.6 
0.999
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 4.19E-03 1.80E-03 2.22E-03 2.46E-03 7.52E-03 8.52E-03 1.12E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.65E+02 6.17E+01 8.14E+01 9.22E+01 2.82E+02 3.12E+02 3.84E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
# of Doses
8.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
1.65E+02
Dose Units
oocysts
Response
infection
Exposure Route
oral
Contains Preferred Model
k
4.19E-03
Agent Strain
Iowa strain
Experiment ID
108
Host type
human
Experiment Dataset
Description
Mouse/ CO92 model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 1 3 4
1000 3 1 4
1E+04 4 0 4
1E+05 4 0 4

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.338 0.195 3 3.84 
0.658 		7.81 
0.953
Beta Poisson 0.142 2 5.99 
0.931
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.63E-03 3.62E-04 5.50E-04 6.22E-04 7.02E-03 7.02E-03 7.02E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 4.26E+02 9.87E+01 9.87E+01 9.87E+01 1.11E+03 1.26E+03 1.92E+03
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
LD50/ID50
4.26E+02
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Exposure Route
intranasal
Contains Preferred Model
k
1.63E-03
Agent Strain
CO92
Experiment ID
1
Host type
mice
Experiment Dataset
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 1 3 4
1000 3 1 4
1E+04 4 0 4
1E+05 4 0 4
Lead Editor: 
Patrick Gurian
Lead Editor: 
Jade Mitchell
Lead Editor: 
Chuck Haas
Lead Editor: 
Mark H. Weir
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